According to Tourism Economics, China is
poised to dominate outbound travel spending,
with forecasts predicting expenditures to exceed
$450 billion by 2033, more than double that of
the next “biggest spender” – the United States.
This surge is driven not only by China’s sheer size
but also by rising incomes and an expanding
middle class. By 2033, over 60 million more
Chinese households are expected to earn
enough to afford international travel (defined by
Oxford Economics as earning $35,000 or more in
2015 constant prices), significantly boosting the
potential for outbound tourism.
In contrast, despite India’s larger and rapidly
growing population, its average income levels
are lower, excluding it from the top contributors
to future outbound travel spending growth.
India’s middle class may be expanding quickly,
but from a low base.
Should this forecast come to pass, China’s
growth in travel spending will eclipse that of
several major outbound markets combined:
the US, Germany, UK, Canada, France, Spain,
Italy, and Switzerland. China will be a defining
factor in the global tourism market over the next
decade. With robust policies to maximize the
benefits of tourism and minimize the downsides,
destinations around the world stand to gain
significantly from the economic contributions
of Chinese tourists.